Sunday, January 23, 2011

Packers-Steelers should be a Texas-sized heavyweight bout

One team has the obvious edge in offense. That team is the Green Bay Packers.

Another has the obvious edge in defense. That team would be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Come February 5th at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, only one of these teams will be hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy at game's end.

For the Packers to bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy back home to Green Bay: Back when the Packers last won a Super Bowl, Bill Clinton had just been re-elected to a second term in the White House, gas cost about $1.25 per gallon, Toni Braxton had the #1 song in the land with "Un-Break My Heart," and the highest-rated TV show was NBC's "ER." Now they're the first six-seed from the NFC to ever make it to the Super Bowl, and they have the leg up in regards to offense. But in order for the Vince Lombardi Trophy to come home to Titletown, the Pack has to scale a Mount Everest of a defense that is the 2010's version of the Steel Curtain, which has allowed only 207.5 YPG in the playoffs. Both teams utilize a 3-4 defense, but their philosophies are very different. While the Packers have given up 17 points a game leading up to the Super Bowl, the Steelers have the edge in regards to total defense (combined against the pass and the run), which means whoever wins the battle in the trenches consistently could give the other side fits over the course of the game. Both teams possess strong running games, and if the Packers can move the ball effectively on the ground, they can win.

For the Steelers to add a 7th Lombardi Trophy: This is the third Super Bowl appearance for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the past six years. They won "one for the thumb" in Super Bowl XL against Seattle (which was also one of the most controversial Super Bowls in history in part because of questionable officiating throughout that game) and added another one in Tampa against Arizona in 2009 to make it "Six-burgh." Now they're looking for lucky number seven, which would solidify their edge in championships during the Super Bowl era. As I remarked earlier, the battle in the trenches could be the difference in who leaves Cowboys Stadium with the Lombardi Trophy, and if the Steelers defense can eliminate the Packers' run game, their chances will look very good. While the Steelers offense isn't as explosive as the Packers offense, it is effective and does possess a strong running game. But the game-breaker for the Steelers could be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who could be looking to attack the Packers secondary with his arm. But he'll have to be careful throwing the football because the Packers secondary has a penchant for picking off passes that could shift momentum back into their favor. The Steelers offensive line will also have their hands full with the Packers should Big Ben decide to move the football with his arm, as the Packers defense could be looking to go right after Roethlisberger much like the Steelers defense will be looking to let 'er rip on Aaron Rodgers.

Things to watch for from both teams: This will not be an easy game for either team. Both teams have strong running games while at the same time have strong defenses as well. The battle in the trenches will be one thing to pay close attention to as the game progresses, and whichever team wins the most battles will likely win the game. Another thing to keep an eye on is protecting the football. While Green Bay has the edge in turnover ratio (+3 compared to Pittsburgh's even ratio), the Steelers are also capable of forcing the Packers into making mistakes, and should a turnover take place late if the game's tight, it could prove to be quite costly for whichever team coughs up the football. Most of the players on the Steelers active roster know how to play these meaningful games, while on the flip side most of the Packers roster will be getting their first taste of playing on Super Sunday.

MY VERDICT: STEELERS 16, Packers 14

Photo credits: Getty Images

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